GMAT Focus EditionVerbal ReasoningEasy
A local coffee shop owner observes that sales of specialty lattes increase significantly during colder months. She concludes that the drop in temperature directly drives the demand for these warm, comforting beverages. Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the coffee shop owner's conclusion?
- AOther local businesses, such as bakeries, also report increased sales during colder months.
- BThe coffee shop introduces new, seasonal latte flavors only in the colder months.
- CSales of regular coffee also see a modest increase during colder months.
- DDuring colder months, the coffee shop offers promotional discounts on specialty lattes.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: D. During colder months, the coffee shop offers promotional discounts on specialty lattes.
The owner attributes increased sales solely to temperature drop. If promotional discounts are offered during colder months, then these discounts could be an alternative reason for the increased sales, thus weakening the conclusion that temperature drop is the *direct driver*.
Why the other options are wrong
- A. This suggests a general trend for local businesses in colder months, which could be due to colder weather, thus strengthening the idea that colder weather influences consumer behavior, not weakening the conclusion about lattes.
- B. This also suggests an alternative cause (new flavors), weakening the conclusion. However, promotions (A) are often a more direct and universally understood driver of sales than new flavors, making A a slightly stronger weaken.
- C. Increased sales of *regular* coffee also during colder months would *strengthen* the idea that colder weather drives demand for warm beverages in general, not weaken it.
Identifying Alternative Causes
To weaken a causal claim, identify other plausible factors that could explain the observed effect, besides the one proposed.
- Correlation is not causation.
- Look for confounding variables.
- Consider external influences.
Memory trick: Don't assume 'because of' without checking all the 'why's and 'what for's!