A technology company plans to launch a new smartphone with a significantly longer battery life than its competitors. The marketing team projects that this feature will be the primary driver of sales, leading to a 20% market share increase within the first year. Which of the following, if true, would provide the strongest reason to doubt the marketing team's projection?
- ACompetitors are expected to release their own long-lasting battery models within six months.
- BThe new smartphone will be priced 30% higher than competing models with comparable features.
- CThe company's previous smartphone model had a battery life comparable to its competitors.
- DSurveys indicate that most smartphone users prioritize camera quality over battery life.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: D. Surveys indicate that most smartphone users prioritize camera quality over battery life.
The marketing team's projection hinges on the assumption that 'significantly longer battery life' will be the 'primary driver of sales'. Option B directly challenges this fundamental assumption by stating that users prioritize camera quality. If the primary driver of sales is something other than battery life, then even a superior battery will not necessarily lead to the projected market share increase.
Why the other options are wrong
- A. Competitor actions might affect long-term market share but don't directly challenge the *initial* projection based on the *primary driver* assumption.
- B. High price could deter sales, but doesn't directly undermine the *primary driver* assumption about battery life. Users might still want battery life, just not at that price.
- C. Past performance of a different model is not directly relevant to the market's response to the new model's specific feature.
Challenging Primary Driver Assumptions
To doubt a projection based on a 'primary driver', identify evidence that suggests a different factor is the actual primary driver or that the assumed driver is not as important as believed.
- Focus on the stated 'primary' or 'most important' factor.
- Look for evidence that contradicts this prioritization.
- The alternative factor must be substantial enough to invalidate the projection.
Memory trick: Building a house on sand: the foundation isn't solid.