LSAT (Law School Admission Test)Reading ComprehensionHard
Passage: "The 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH) posits that asset prices fully reflect all available information. This implies that it is impossible to consistently 'beat the market' through active trading, as any new information is immediately incorporated into prices. Critics of EMH often point to market anomalies, such as predictable patterns in stock returns or the existence of speculative bubbles, as evidence against its strong forms. They argue that investor psychology, information asymmetry, or structural market inefficiencies can prevent prices from always reflecting true underlying value. While EMH remains a cornerstone of financial theory, the debate over its practical implications for investors and policymakers continues." Which of the following, if true, would most directly challenge the 'strong form' of the efficient market hypothesis?
- AA fund manager consistently earns higher returns than the market average by analyzing publicly available financial reports.
- BThe stock market experiences a period of prolonged volatility due to geopolitical events.
- CInsider trading, which uses non-public information, is found to be profitable for those who engage in it.
- DAcademic studies show that market prices react quickly to major corporate announcements.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: C. Insider trading, which uses non-public information, is found to be profitable for those who engage in it.
The 'strong form' of EMH states that prices reflect *all* information, including private or insider information. If insider trading is consistently profitable, it means private information is *not* immediately reflected in prices, directly contradicting the strong form.
Why the other options are wrong
- A. This challenges the 'semi-strong form' (public info), but not necessarily the 'strong form' which includes private info.
- B. Market volatility doesn't inherently challenge EMH; an efficient market would still react to new information (geopolitical events) by becoming volatile.
- D. This supports the semi-strong form of EMH (public information is quickly reflected), not challenges the strong form.
Challenging a Hypothesis
To challenge a hypothesis is to identify evidence or a situation that contradicts its central claim or prediction, thereby weakening or disproving it.
- Requires understanding the core claim of the hypothesis.
- Looks for direct counter-evidence.
- Focuses on the most extreme or strongest version of the hypothesis if specified.
Memory trick: To disprove, find the 'Anti-Hypothesis' that breaks its rule.