LSAT (Law School Admission Test)Reading ComprehensionMedium
Passage: "The 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH) posits that asset prices fully reflect all available information. There are three forms of EMH: weak-form, semi-strong form, and strong-form. The weak-form EMH suggests that current prices reflect all past market prices and trading volumes, making technical analysis (studying past price movements) ineffective. The semi-strong form EMH asserts that prices reflect all publicly available information, including financial statements, news announcements, and economic forecasts, thereby rendering fundamental analysis (evaluating a company's intrinsic value) useless. Finally, the strong-form EMH claims that prices reflect all information, whether public or private, meaning even insiders cannot consistently earn abnormal returns. While empirical evidence largely supports the weak and semi-strong forms, the strong-form remains highly contentious due to evidence of insider trading profitability. Regardless, the EMH provides a theoretical benchmark for understanding market behavior." If a stock market analyst consistently achieves abnormal returns by carefully studying a company's publicly released quarterly earnings reports and predicting future stock movements, which form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis would be most strongly challenged?
- AWeak-form EMH
- BAll three forms of EMH equally
- CStrong-form EMH
- DSemi-strong form EMH
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: D. Semi-strong form EMH
The semi-strong form EMH states that 'prices reflect all publicly available information,' including 'financial statements' like quarterly earnings reports, making fundamental analysis (which involves studying such reports) 'useless.' If an analyst consistently profits from this, it directly contradicts the semi-strong form.
Why the other options are wrong
- A. The weak-form EMH relates to past prices, not publicly released earnings reports.
- B. Only the semi-strong form is directly challenged by this specific scenario.
- C. The strong-form EMH deals with private information; publicly released earnings reports are not private.
Challenging a Hypothesis
Identifying which part of a theory or hypothesis would be disproven or severely undermined by a specific piece of evidence or scenario.
- Understand the specific claims of each part of the hypothesis.
- Match the evidence in the scenario to the information type addressed by each claim.
- A hypothesis is challenged when its specific prediction is contradicted by observed reality.
Memory trick: Information Type Unravels the Hypothesis.