CompTIA Project+ (PK0-005)Project Life Cycle PhasesMedium
A project manager is developing the initial project schedule and needs to estimate the duration of a specific activity. The activity involves a novel technology and has significant uncertainty. The team provides three estimates: an optimistic estimate of 5 days, a pessimistic estimate of 19 days, and a most likely estimate of 9 days. Which of the following methods should the project manager use to calculate the activity's expected duration?
- AProgram Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
- BResource Leveling
- CMonte Carlo Simulation
- DCritical Path Method (CPM)
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: A. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
PERT is a statistical tool used to analyze tasks in a project, especially when there is uncertainty in activity durations. It uses optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely estimates to calculate an expected duration, making it suitable for novel or uncertain activities. The formula used is (Optimistic + 4 * Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6.
Why the other options are wrong
- B. Resource leveling is a technique used to optimize the allocation of resources and resolve over-allocations, not for duration estimation.
- C. Monte Carlo simulation is a more advanced technique that uses probability distributions to model potential outcomes, typically for overall project duration, not a single activity's expected duration from three points.
- D. CPM focuses on determining the longest path of planned activities to the end of the project, using deterministic durations.
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
A project management technique used to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a project, especially when activity durations are uncertain.
- Uses three-point estimates: optimistic, pessimistic, most likely.
- Calculates a weighted average for expected activity duration.
- Helps manage uncertainty in project schedules.
Memory trick: Uncertainty asks for PERT's three-point view.