MCAT® ExamCritical Analysis and Reasoning SkillsHard
Passage: The 'hot hand fallacy' is the mistaken belief that a person who has experienced success with a random event has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts. This is often observed in sports, where a player who has made several successful shots in a row is believed to be 'on fire' and therefore more likely to make their next shot, even though each shot is an independent event with its own probability. The opposite, the 'gambler's fallacy,' is the belief that if a particular outcome has not occurred for a while, it is 'due' or more likely to occur soon. A basketball player has just made five consecutive free throws. The coach decides to substitute the player back into the game immediately, stating, 'She's got the hot hand; let's capitalize on it!' A statistician, however, points out that the probability of making each free throw is independent of the previous ones, and her past success does not alter the odds of her next shot. The coach's decision is an example of:
- AThe hot hand fallacy
- BConfirmation bias
- CThe gambler's fallacy
- DThe availability heuristic
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: A. The hot hand fallacy
The coach's belief that the player's recent success (five consecutive free throws) increases her probability of making the *next* shot is a direct example of the hot hand fallacy. The passage explicitly states that this fallacy is the mistaken belief that past success in random events increases the chance of future success.
Why the other options are wrong
- B. Confirmation bias involves seeking information that confirms existing beliefs, not predicting future random events.
- C. The gambler's fallacy is the belief that an event is 'due' after a long streak of not happening, which is the opposite of the hot hand fallacy.
- D. The availability heuristic involves judging probability based on how easily examples come to mind, which is not the core issue here.
Hot Hand Fallacy
Mistaken belief that success with random events increases the probability of further success; each event is independent.
- Common in sports (e.g., basketball shots).
- Assumes streaks impact future independent probabilities.
- Contrasts with the gambler's fallacy.
Memory trick: Hot Hand: 'H' for 'Hot', 'H' for 'Happening now, so it will continue'.