Marketing Director: Our new advertising campaign, which focuses on emotional appeal rather than product features, has been a huge success. Sales figures for the last quarter increased by 25% compared to the previous quarter. Clearly, emotional advertising is more effective for our products.
- AThe director assumes that the increase in sales is solely attributable to the new advertising campaign.
- BThe director overlooks the possibility that competitors' products might have experienced a decline in quality.
- CThe director fails to consider that the previous quarter's sales might have been unusually low.
- DThe director does not provide data on the cost of the new advertising campaign.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: C. The director fails to consider that the previous quarter's sales might have been unusually low.
The argument compares current sales to the previous quarter's sales to declare success. This comparison is flawed if the previous quarter (the 'baseline') was abnormally low due to seasonal variations, a temporary market downturn, or other transient factors. Without knowing if the baseline was typical, a 25% increase might not indicate true success or effectiveness of the campaign.
Why the other options are wrong
- A. While a general causal flaw, 'A' identifies a more specific and fundamental issue with the *measurement* of success.
- B. This is an alternative cause, but the core flaw is in the validity of the comparison used to define 'success'.
- D. Cost-effectiveness is a separate issue from the effectiveness of the campaign in increasing sales.
Missing/Shifting Baseline (LSAT)
A flaw in reasoning where an argument draws conclusions about change or effectiveness by comparing current data to a baseline that is either unstated, inappropriate, or itself subject to fluctuations that render the comparison misleading.
- Often involves comparing 'before' and 'after' without proper context.
- Assumes the baseline is stable or typical.
- Weakens arguments by making observed changes seem more significant than they are.
Memory trick: Always check if the starting line is fair before judging the race.