GRE General TestAnalytical WritingHard
A prominent economist argues that increased government spending on infrastructure projects will inevitably lead to a robust economic recovery. The economist asserts that such spending directly creates jobs, stimulates demand for materials, and improves long-term productivity. Which of the following, if true, would most seriously challenge the economist's prediction of a 'robust economic recovery'?
- AOther economists predict that the current economic downturn is primarily driven by a lack of consumer confidence, not infrastructure deficiencies.
- BA significant portion of the funds for infrastructure projects would be sourced from foreign loans, increasing national debt.
- CThe majority of the materials required for these projects are imported, rather than produced domestically.
- DHistorical data shows that infrastructure projects often face significant delays and budget overruns.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: C. The majority of the materials required for these projects are imported, rather than produced domestically.
The economist's argument for robust recovery relies on the idea that spending stimulates demand and creates domestic jobs. If materials are imported, the stimulus to domestic demand and job creation from material production would be significantly reduced, thus challenging the 'robust economic recovery' claim.
Why the other options are wrong
- A. This offers an alternative explanation for the downturn, but doesn't directly challenge the economist's claim that *if* infrastructure spending occurs, it *will* lead to recovery through the stated mechanisms, only that the *cause* of the downturn is different.
- B. While increasing national debt is a concern, it doesn't directly undermine the immediate stimulative effect or long-term productivity benefits that the economist claims would lead to recovery.
- D. Delays and overruns affect efficiency and cost, but don't fundamentally negate the stimulative effects (job creation, demand) or long-term productivity gains once the projects are completed, merely postpone or diminish their net positive impact.
Challenging a Causal Chain
To challenge a causal chain, one must introduce information that breaks or weakens one of the links in the sequence of events or conditions leading from a cause to its predicted effect.
- Focuses on the steps between cause and effect.
- Shows an intermediate step is flawed or missing.
- Prevents the predicted outcome from occurring.
Memory trick: Cause leads to effect, if the links don't break.