GRE General TestAnalytical WritingEasy
A historian argues that the decline of a particular ancient empire was primarily due to its over-reliance on a single agricultural crop, which made it vulnerable to climate fluctuations. The historian supports this by noting that a series of prolonged droughts coincided with the empire's period of decline. Which of the following best describes the flaw in the historian's reasoning?
- AIt confuses correlation with causation by assuming that because two events occurred together, one caused the other.
- BIt assumes that other empires did not face similar climate challenges.
- CIt fails to consider that the empire might have had a diverse economy beyond agriculture.
- DIt does not provide specific data on the empire's crop yields during the drought periods.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: A. It confuses correlation with causation by assuming that because two events occurred together, one caused the other.
The historian observes two events happening at the same time (droughts and decline) and concludes that one caused the other. This is a classic error of confusing correlation (co-occurrence) with causation (one event directly leading to another).
Why the other options are wrong
- B. The argument's flaw is about its internal logic, not its comparison to other empires. This is not the primary flaw.
- C. While a diverse economy might weaken the argument, the argument's core flaw is about the causal link it *does* make, not what it fails to consider for other parts of the economy.
- D. Lack of specific data weakens the evidence but is not a logical flaw in the reasoning structure itself, which is about the type of conclusion drawn from the evidence.
Correlation vs. Causation
Correlation means two things tend to happen together. Causation means one thing directly causes the other. Confusing them is a common logical fallacy.
- Correlation does not imply causation.
- A third, unobserved factor might cause both.
- Causation requires a direct link and often a mechanism.
Memory trick: Correlation is like two friends walking together; causation is one friend pushing the other.