GRE General TestAnalytical WritingHard
A CEO claims that a new employee wellness program has dramatically reduced absenteeism, citing a 25% drop in sick days taken by employees over the past six months. However, during the same period, the company also implemented a new policy that offers a significant bonus to employees with perfect attendance. Which of the following is the most likely alternative explanation for the observed reduction in sick days?
- AEmployees are coming to work sick to avoid losing the attendance bonus.
- BImproved employee morale due to the wellness program.
- CA general decrease in seasonal illnesses during that six-month period.
- DThe wellness program increased employee awareness of healthy habits.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: A. Employees are coming to work sick to avoid losing the attendance bonus.
The attendance bonus introduces a strong incentive that could directly influence employees' decisions to take sick days, regardless of their actual health or the wellness program's effects. Employees might choose to come to work sick to secure the bonus, making the reduction in sick days an artifact of the bonus policy rather than the wellness program's intended health benefits.
Why the other options are wrong
- B. While possible, the bonus policy offers a more direct and powerful alternative explanation for the *specific reduction in sick days taken*.
- C. Possible, but the bonus policy is a specific, internal factor that provides a stronger, more direct alternative explanation for the observed change.
- D. This is the intended effect of the wellness program, but the bonus policy provides a more immediate and compelling alternative explanation for the *data* (sick days taken).
Confounding Variable (Alternative Explanation)
A confounding variable is an unmeasured factor that influences both the supposed cause and effect, creating a spurious or misleading association between them, thus offering an alternative explanation for observed results.
- Provides an alternative explanation for an observed correlation.
- Can make it seem like a causal relationship exists when it does not.
- Must be controlled for or accounted for to establish true causation.
Memory trick: Alternatives ALWAYS alter assumptions.