LSAT (Law School Admission Test)Logical ReasoningEasy
A historian argues that the primary cause of the empire's downfall was a prolonged drought, leading to widespread famine and social unrest. However, recent geological surveys indicate that the drought was not as severe or prolonged as previously thought, and the empire had robust irrigation systems. This new information, if true, would most likely lead the historian to:
- ARe-evaluate the primary cause of the empire's downfall.
- BConclude that the empire's irrigation systems were ineffective.
- CSeek additional evidence to confirm the severity of the drought.
- DArgue that the social unrest was a result of other factors.
Show answer & explanationAnswer & explanation
Correct answer: A. Re-evaluate the primary cause of the empire's downfall.
The new information directly contradicts the historian's central premise about the drought's severity and its impact, which was identified as the 'primary cause.' Therefore, the historian would need to reconsider their initial conclusion about the primary cause.
Why the other options are wrong
- B. The new information states the irrigation systems were 'robust,' not ineffective. This would contradict the new data.
- C. The new evidence directly challenges the severity, so seeking *additional* evidence to confirm the *previously thought* severity would be counterproductive if the new data is reliable.
- D. While true that social unrest could have other causes, the new information directly challenges the *drought* as the cause of *famine and unrest*, leading to a re-evaluation of the *primary cause* itself, not just an isolated factor.
Re-evaluating a Conclusion
Re-evaluating a conclusion involves reconsidering its validity or certainty when new information or evidence emerges that challenges its supporting premises or introduces alternative explanations.
- Occurs when core assumptions or evidence are undermined.
- Requires a critical assessment of the original argument.
- May lead to modifying the conclusion or rejecting it entirely.
Memory trick: New facts arise, old conclusions revise!